Ornatus-Mundi
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Swatch co-inventor Elmar Mock: watch industry headed towards ice-age thanks to Apple Watch
According to a (very informative and well written) report published today at bloomberg.com, Elmar Mock, co-inventor of the Swatch and one of the most important figure in the Swiss watch industry (and Prix-Gaia laureate), offered dire outlook on the Swiss watch industry amidst the imminent launch of the Apple Watch. The reason according to Mr Mock: arrogance!
According to the keynote presentation of Tim Cook on Monday, the Apple Watch will come in three version, covering three important price brackets (and thus market ranges):
- Apple Watch Sport (aluminium) starts at $349
- Apple Watch (stainless steel) just over $1,000
- Apple Watch Edition (18 ct. gold) begin at $10,000
While the latter being a special piece to be sold in a very limited quantities, the remaining volume models occupy a niche where over 90% of the Swiss watch production (in terms of volume) resp. 40 % of the value is sold.
And, as Mr Mock says, anything in this price bracket really is in danger. To put this in numbers: Apple is expected to sell 20 to 30 million watches in the first year. Switzerland's watch exports in 2014 were close to 30 million. In other words, already in the first year Apple will sell as many watches as entires Switzerland!
Mock further recalls the "quartz crisis" of the 1970s and 1980s, where the Swiss industry totally misjudged the impeding threat posed by cheap Japanese quartz watches, ultimately resulting in the loss of more than 60.000 jobs in the watch industry.
"So far I see watchmakers in this country making the same mistakes as back then," Mock said. "We've seen a lot of arrogance in the Swiss watch industry in the past few years, calling the smartwatch a gadget and not taking it seriously."
Tough times ahead, but the Swiss have not yet lost the case if "the top managements of the companies will react accordingly", Mock adds.
Personally, I think he has a point. Not having had a personal experience with the Apple Watch I won't be further going into the utility of a smart wearable, its appeal to watch collectors or its long time value, However, I can safely say that the traditional watch industry, particularly in the lower to mid price range, got they wake-up call on Monday: If it is not for technology, than at least for case construction. Having seen what Apple can offer in terms of materials innovation, design and (supposedly) quality (the new aluminium and the high-tech gold), then I have to say: one gear (at least) up, please!
Cheers,
Magnus
This message has been edited by Ornatus-Mundi on 2015-03-10 16:09:09 This message has been edited by Ornatus-Mundi on 2015-03-10 16:11:07
Swatch co-inventor Elmar Mock: watch industry headed towards ice-age thanks to Apple Watch
According to a (very informative and well written) report published today at bloomberg.com , Elmar Mock , co-inventor of the Swatch and one of the most important figure in the Swiss watch industry (and Prix-Gaia laureate), offered dire outlook on the Swis...
Thank you for this information Magnus.....
Very interesting, although I would agree with the fact that the Apple Watch is a gadget, what else would it be? However, gadget from Apple have a good track record for selling like hot cakes and I believe it to be much easier for a company like say, Swatc...
Are we not supposed to?.....
I remember when I was about 11-12 years old our class went to visit a small zoo in Switzerland, the zoo keeper pointing toward the monkeys said that we all "descend" from monkeys, however, some descended faster.....in my naivety, since then, I have hold a...
Glad that not only in my country....
that completely wrong misconception that we descend from monkey(s) was told children :)
Oh! But some do Damjan.......
..when I look around, I am sure of it;) Cheers Francois
François, those 'little cogs, screws and wheels' are not in danger at all I guess...
as the price range the mainstream Apple Watches are in there is very little 'little cogs, screws and wheels' - mostly quartzes and batteries ;-) Best, Magnus
the case and strap remind me of...
our ABR case and the ikepod strap... There will be repurcussions for the sub-$1k market, no question. for watchgeeks and "WIS" I'm not so sure... interesting food for thought. TM
The Glass is Half Full
Consider this: despite increasing Swiss production, I suspect in many (most?) markets the number of people who wear a watch at all has declined year over year for some time. (Perhaps someone has that data?). If in fact Apple sells 30m watches, or even put...
I like the way you think, CJ. Just today I overheard a heated
conversation about the fact that the iWatch is sold without a strap. One side was really whipped into a frenzy - "how much for a strap?!?" the other side was saying, "you don't understand. just imagine the ecosystem that will develop around the strap busi...
An opportunity? YES, but not if one tries to get by with 'business as usual'!
This is actually also what Mr Mock refers to. Magnus
You've made an important point.
There will be some young people who have not worn a watch before and who are the type to have every new tech item who will buy this watch. Some may very well become intrigued by the idea of wristwatches and will look at what has already been out there-whe...
But this 'useless highly priced item' WAS the response to the quartz crisis...
and a very clever one spearheaded by Jean-Claude Biver and others. How could it look like this time? The same again?
That was my point.
And I do not think a new response is needed. Smart watches will not attract buyers away from Swiss/German luxury brands. Their appeal is to a different market.
Not sure about that
I buy Patek, Urwer, and etc., but I also plan to buy smartwatch, I can't be the only one...... I have worked in tech. for a long time and also a photography gear nut, and saw first hand what digital tech. did the the film industry, so I wouldn't underesti...
I want to also elaborate
It's not so much the digital pixels that killed the film industry, it's the fact that digital technology brought a change to consumer behaviour. When it first appeared, diehard film user argued film is here to stay, that it offer better quality, etc., etc...
Agree to disagree!
In making my point I see excluded ALL mechanical watch buyers from an interest in smart watches. Of course that is ridiculous. But I will stick to my main point: the smart watch will have little to no affect on the mechanical watch industry. Will you stop...
Don't know if this is permitted....
..I have just read this article and wanted to share in order to keep things in perspective. Wow! US$ 17'000.00 for an Apple watch? I'll get a tree here for much less than that:) Please delete if posting this link is blasphemous! Cheers Francois
It is a totally different story
The Swiss industry just don't sell electronics nor great software but luxury goods. How do you want any Swiss brand to compete in this field and with these volumes? It make just no sense to compare both. Cheers, Goldenlutin
Yeah...
Even if Swiss watch industry takes notice, what can they do? I don't see Swatch, Rolex or Patek come up with an OS, and just throw a few sensors into what they have now, won't really make it a "smartwatch". Real smartwatches requires a vertical integratio...
Plus, it would need 'vertical & horizontal' cooperation across the firms...
which I particularly find difficult to imagine in secretive Swiss watch valleys... Magnus
Sure similar conversations took place within watch geek circles when quartz was introduced
Mechanical movements are almost deliberately anachronistic and this aspect to them in thrown into sharp relief by this Apple watch. This Apple watch does have an attractive design all the same, albeit derivative of other watches, especially the Manatee. I...
I see some truth in this. if SmartWatches start to occupy the USD..
10K and below, what will that do to the Swiss watches at those price points? Raising prices on those watches will not increase sales and lowering them will eat into profits. Losing entry level mechanical watches seems to me to be bad for the industry.
Full agreement here, Ronald. THIS could be...
a real threat to the industry which might repercuss even in the higher market ranges. But again this all depends how open-minded the industry reacts. Magnus
Does iWatch need iPhone to operate?
because if it is so, i understand the strategy, a new gadget for apple fans...but for the rest of the world? If i wanted to buy the iwatch, i should buy the iphone. please correct me if i'm wrong ;)
thank you
to my eyes is meaningless in the next year probably we'll see an iwatch working without iphone ot other mobile phone, but now is for iphone owners only. a nonsense....
*All* smart watches need tying them to a smart phone...
which makes sense given memory, processing power and battery limitations. Today a computer is pretty much useless without being tied to the internet (with the extreme example of Google's Chrome OS), in fact even more objects get their tie ('internet of th...
500 million
Apple has already sold 500 million iPhones and I know very few who do not own one so this is hardly an issue. ...
On the other hand ...
if someone calls you, you'll have to talk into the watch and hold the phone to your ear. Try doing that without looking like an idiot !
Needs an iPhone only...
if you want to use the apps, email notifications, etc., that come with it. Otherwise, you may use it just as a watch. Aloha, Bob
A new category
Actually I don't see that the impact on the traditional Swiss watch industry will be great. At the low end, a classic Swatch is priced well below the Apple watch. It offers something radically different..artistic style, interesting themes and colors. At h...
Yes, those who would never consider buying a wrist watch...
- are used to smart devices and their daily need to be charged, so I think this is not much of an issue for those customers - could ( subjunctive !) be even attracted to the 'real watch' market, thus bear the potential to adding to the watch industry. Now...
And it has security issues...
Hackers. And code Crackers, etc. I test software (IT Quality Assurance), and this would be an interesting device to test all-around. We thought mobile devices and phones were a challenge, now the Apple watch presents a bit of a new one. I welcome it (it's...
Quartz crisis cubed
Coi ncidentally wearing my 1973 JLC Chronometre that defied the quartz crisis I read Nick Foulkes article about Sir Jonathan Ive and the AppleWatch last weekend at the dawn of Apple’s entry into the watch market. It was crammed with blatant marketing guff...
Gentlemen,
I think most of you totally underestimate the new watch concept. Apple Watch is just the start and nobody knows what we will see in five years or so. Desk divers wear their Rolex Submariners but I have never seen a real diver who would not wear a dive com...
But Kari,
Our watches are already relics. We're wearing centuries old technology on our wrists. Their value and appeal is not challenged by technology. To the contrary, their appeal is a reaction to the "throwaway" technology of the current age. A smart-[INSERT NAM...
The point Kari didn't make . . .
. . . but easily could have is that many of us have come to appreciate horology from memories of our fathers' timepieces. Two generations hence, memories fond or otherwise will be of smart watches. The serious threat to mechanical watches isn't now; it's ...
Perhaps, Art, but I'm not convinced of a 'serious threat'.
Let\'s take Max Busser as an example. Max Busser describes his MB&F watches as \'machines\' and as wearable art. A smart watch doesn\'t replace our desire for one of his watches by virtue of its utility. Those who find Max\'s art compelling will continue ...
Interesting thought, Art, you evoke the principle of imprinting by Konrad Lorenz...
and apply it to watches. Maybe you are right. My first watch at all was a mechanical 'Ruhla' from the now extinct GDR. At the time I was at school I desperately wanted a Casio digital watch - so cool! Now, I am back to mechanicals... ;-) imprinted? Most l...
Not so sure Kari......
I am not that sure that "most of us underestimate" the new watch concept. Perhaps many "of us" are overestimating it!? After all I do remember when these Casio, Pulsar and other brands were coming on the market many years ago. These were novelties, cheap ...
Wearables has huge potential
Some people mentioned google glass and how it failed, but google glass has different issues all together. First of all nobody likes to put glasses or a device on their face if they don't have to, and for those who don't mind, well, other people do mind, t...
I'm an Apple fan but I don't want "my mother" on my wrist
That sums up my feeling but I\'ll buy one - it\'s my obligation as a moderator to brave this new world.
Yes, technology revolutionises our life.
I have heard many watch nuts been saying they do not want to wear the same watch everybody does. At one stage, I remember seeing Casio in a number of different places. I also remember seeing the then very popular black titanium quartz on a great number of...
Will eat into market share, but little to worry about until there's an itourbillon
They're appealing to different markets in many way, I think. But it calls into question, interestingly, why consumers buy mechanical watches in the first place. A good many purchase Swiss watches as mere status symbols. I know it's not a popular opinion t...
Confused ..
Frankly, I don't understand the appeal of the Apple Watch as it does little an iPhone will not. Also find the styling unattractive and the use of gold utterly inappropriate to an item produced by a company otherwise quite dedicated to Ulm school, Bauhaus ...
Metallurgy
Yes Magnus, certainly agree Apple's thoroughness in developing their case making metallurgy is most impressive and something the Swiss watch industry could certainly learn from.
Apple Watch Edition Will Save On Gold With Patented Alloy
Then again, perhaps I spoke too soon. Quote from a recent Forbes magazine article: "A new Apple patent has surfaced for a “Method and Apparatus for forming a gold metal matrix composite.” In simple terms, this new “Apple gold” is lighter, stronger and mor...
Much ado about nothing for me at this point.
These whirligigs haven't even been launched widely to consumers yet. Who knows how they'll hold up, what early-adopter tech issues there will be (Was the whole iPhone "Bend-gate" so long ago that it's been forgotten?), whether people will want to actually...
Like all good students of Vlad...
...it takes a lot of sunlight and stakes to keep a girl down forever. :-) Hope you are enjoying your weekend! :-) Daos
My humble opinion on the subject
The technological journey has one common denominator, miniaturization. IMHO the technology contained in an iwatch is on its own journey as stated above. As this technology evolves it will be contained in ever smaller sizes so while there will be an impact...
In addition,
On a final point, the history of "smart watches" such as the old Casio calculator watches and the like Have all had the handicap of a small screen, the iwatch is no different. Let us consider the difference between the iPhone 5 and the iphone 6... The scr...
Far greater threat
Quartz watches and smartwatches are completely two different beasts. And screen size is not the limitation on how well smartwatches will develop. If that were the case, why even bother with wrist watches, people would have stick to pocket watches, you can...
It boils down to the following,
will a utilitarian device replace a luxury item? Because mechanical watches are without a doubt luxury items. The Quartz crisis pushed pretty much all mechanical watches into the luxury item bracket. I just don't see how a utilitarian device can displace ...
Umm
I think they are different. Digital photograph changed the way people photograph and sharing, quartz watches essentially is just a cheaper and more accurate way of powering a watch. Smart wearables have the potential to change how people uses wrist device...
It's a quartz crisis for quartz watches!
NOT a quartz crisis for high-end Swiss mechanical. Anyway, the comparison between the quartz crisis and wearable "crisis" does not make a lot of sense to me. They are entirely different.
