Tony C.
1239
Thank you, S...
Dec 23, 2014,14:14 PM
I appreciate your interesting thoughts.
I do agree that there will always be collectors to support various types of markets, and that some of them will prove immune to even great economic shocks. However, I am even seeing some nice Vacheron and Audemars examples selling for considerably less than they would have two or three years ago, further supporting my impression that supply is increasing while demand contracts.
Are there other variables at play? Absolutely. But the global collecting community to which you refer is, in my view, both contracting in terms of numbers, and in terms of available monies to spend. Hence, a noticeable (to me, anyway) contraction in other than the high-end and a few other specialized categories (e.g. dive watches).
You make a good point about inflation in other aspects of our lives, and I am certainly not arguing that the value of good vintage watches will plummet to 1970s levels. I actually expect that in the coming years the market will reflect other types of adjustments, as collectors become increasingly sophisticated and, for example, emphasize condition and originality more than in the past.
As you suggest it is a complex topic, and worth exploring in more depth when the time is right.
All the best for the holidays and the new year!
Tony C.