cazalea
[Seiko Moderator]
17091
I suspect it's "seasonality" on a longer-term, wider-scale schedule
If I can observe a few points without taking such a dire political view, I think you can see this in every century and in every country. It's the human condition.
Equally, in the vintage automobile market, there are many buyers who aren't getting any younger and who are buying perfectly preserved or restored 1960's vehicles. People my age, who saw and desired those cars as teenagers. What they are NOT very interested in are Brass Era cars, Model A Fords, between-the-wars Classics, and cars that might need years of restoration. Who's got the time for that? Look for plenty of money to be spent in Scottsdale, AZ in a few weeks when all the auction houses expect record crowds and record prices.
In my particular niche of collecting Byzantine and Russian icons, there is a real buying opportunity right now because many Russian buyers are distracted, dismayed or depressed by the fall of the ruble, and are not buying. Thus leaving a better chance for those of us in the West to grab a few things.
I think you are right to say that in the back of our minds speculation always lurks, no matter what we say about our hobbies, and I believe it has been thus for a very long time - as discussed in the 1100 pages in the "History of Materialism" (circa 1820; note the author taught in Zurich where they make a few watches!)
Cazalea
How the Vintage Watch Market Reflects the Broader Economy
As I have mentioned once or twice over the past several months, I am certain that there is another major economic crisis on the near-horizon. Though many are oblivious to the impending crisis, the actions of largely corrupt politicians, coupled with the t...
Well said...
I enjoyed reading this. I think (and I am no expert on the economy in general) that sometimes we can see trends and whatnot when examining the watch market (new and used). Thanks! =8^{D>
I suspect it's "seasonality" on a longer-term, wider-scale schedule
If I can observe a few points without taking such a dire political view, I think you can see this in every century and in every country. It's the human condition. Just as we have some surges in spending at the holidays (but on family items, not so much on...
Yes, there are other variables at play...
but I disagree that we are in the midst of some typical business cycle. It is true that in the U.S., to touch on one of your examples, Baby Boomers with money have had a powerful impact on the vintage car market, as they have been able to live out long-st...
I think a change in make-up of the collecting community may be taking place.
Vintage watches have enjoyed a huge increase in popularity, and thus price, over the past couple of decades. However, they may have peaked. This is likely the result of several factors: 1. Mighty, mighty efforts by the watch companies to make their new pr...
Thanks for your thoughts...
and taking them one by one: 1) Given how many companies have resorted to producing “homage” pieces, there is a suggestion that the allure of vintage remains as strong as ever! 2) I don’t buy this argument. Most vintage buyers are delighted to take advanta...
And thanks to you, with some responses:
1. There are a lot of hommages, but they tend to be humongous. I'm not sure which way that cuts. 2. Agreed as to existing vintage buyers, but I'm thinking about the people who might become vintage buyers (and support the market) but go modern instead. 3. ...
You have some very valid points, Tony.
Yes, some watches reached a certain Madness in terms of price and value. And I suspect that some of them will suffer. Now let's take some examples: Omega? CK 2915. Since Omegamania some ten years ago ( already! ) this ref has reached the sky. Some predict...
Thanks for your thoughtful response, Nico...
and as you know, I also collect what I like, across a very broad spectrum of prices. My point about collectors taking value into account is not incompatible with acquiring watches that are "under the radar", as those are often the models that are most lik...
Yes, but when we love a watch, we are able to do some sacrifices, too.
Which is a totally independant decision from the value... Even if it is excessive. We are also ready to over pay for a specimen in superb shape. Aren't we? Best, my friend. Nicolas
Haggling?
Thanks for this very interesting post. I agree with most of the points you're bringing up. However, I think a point you should consider (which I'm sure you do, but of course you can't fit everything into one post ;) is that even though the markets are ove...
Thank you, S...
I appreciate your interesting thoughts. I do agree that there will always be collectors to support various types of markets, and that some of them will prove immune to even great economic shocks. However, I am even seeing some nice Vacheron and Audemars e...
One wonders what will happen . . .
. . . when the demand for American currency drops concomitantly with the sagging price of crude oil. With all the speculation about the effect of plummeting oil futures on Russian and Iran, it's odd there isn't any regarding the currency oil happens to be...
Thanks Art...
The dollar is widely considered to be the "cleanest dirty shirt" in the FX market, and is also reflexively considered a "safe haven" by many. This, in spite of the fact that it has been, and continues to be badly debased. We are in the midst of an epic pe...
