Ancienne Le Brassus
1583
Haggling?
Thanks for this very interesting post.
I agree with most of the points you're bringing up.
However, I think a point you should consider (which I'm sure you do, but of course you can't fit everything into one post 
is that even though the markets are overheating, etc., we have a global collecting community that is always there to keep the hagglers (the auction houses, retailers, etc)
able to call somebody on their price bluf.
so if its priced at a ridiculously high price, the sellers have enough potential interested clients that if you don't buy it, somebody else will (even if ... as happens many times in Sothebys, Christies, etc. doesn't come through with the funds after the auction ends! These 'real' numbers are another story!), however, the net effect is that for you the collector the watch is sold at X price which for a variety of reasons you did not feel is worth paying.
Of course there is a celing to evertyhing, depending on how things are orchestrated (marketing, hype, bidding group, etc), but I guess what you're describing is to invest wisely... given the looming horizon.
This horizon however, more than ever, is non existent for much of the larger collecting community. And then, you have to add that how we (on a broader world scale) are collectively spending money (in comparison to 1985 ofr example) has changed.
It is 'expected' that one pays a lofty price for a vintage watch now, this is simply what you do. Would you pay 10K for an old 1960s French Mauviel copper pot? nope! These things are supposed to be max 500US... at one point, one might come however to pay 10K for them, if interior decorators in India, China, Africa, etc. are hooked on the quality of cooking and decor they allow their clients to have... yes? Of course you agree - but your point is again, a different one!
Thanks for your thoughts!
Happy Holidays,
S
S
How the Vintage Watch Market Reflects the Broader Economy
As I have mentioned once or twice over the past several months, I am certain that there is another major economic crisis on the near-horizon. Though many are oblivious to the impending crisis, the actions of largely corrupt politicians, coupled with the t...
Well said...
I enjoyed reading this. I think (and I am no expert on the economy in general) that sometimes we can see trends and whatnot when examining the watch market (new and used). Thanks! =8^{D>
I suspect it's "seasonality" on a longer-term, wider-scale schedule
If I can observe a few points without taking such a dire political view, I think you can see this in every century and in every country. It's the human condition. Just as we have some surges in spending at the holidays (but on family items, not so much on...
Yes, there are other variables at play...
but I disagree that we are in the midst of some typical business cycle. It is true that in the U.S., to touch on one of your examples, Baby Boomers with money have had a powerful impact on the vintage car market, as they have been able to live out long-st...
I think a change in make-up of the collecting community may be taking place.
Vintage watches have enjoyed a huge increase in popularity, and thus price, over the past couple of decades. However, they may have peaked. This is likely the result of several factors: 1. Mighty, mighty efforts by the watch companies to make their new pr...
Thanks for your thoughts...
and taking them one by one: 1) Given how many companies have resorted to producing “homage” pieces, there is a suggestion that the allure of vintage remains as strong as ever! 2) I don’t buy this argument. Most vintage buyers are delighted to take advanta...
And thanks to you, with some responses:
1. There are a lot of hommages, but they tend to be humongous. I'm not sure which way that cuts. 2. Agreed as to existing vintage buyers, but I'm thinking about the people who might become vintage buyers (and support the market) but go modern instead. 3. ...
You have some very valid points, Tony.
Yes, some watches reached a certain Madness in terms of price and value. And I suspect that some of them will suffer. Now let's take some examples: Omega? CK 2915. Since Omegamania some ten years ago ( already! ) this ref has reached the sky. Some predict...
Thanks for your thoughtful response, Nico...
and as you know, I also collect what I like, across a very broad spectrum of prices. My point about collectors taking value into account is not incompatible with acquiring watches that are "under the radar", as those are often the models that are most lik...
Yes, but when we love a watch, we are able to do some sacrifices, too.
Which is a totally independant decision from the value... Even if it is excessive. We are also ready to over pay for a specimen in superb shape. Aren't we? Best, my friend. Nicolas
Haggling?
Thanks for this very interesting post. I agree with most of the points you're bringing up. However, I think a point you should consider (which I'm sure you do, but of course you can't fit everything into one post ;) is that even though the markets are ove...
Thank you, S...
I appreciate your interesting thoughts. I do agree that there will always be collectors to support various types of markets, and that some of them will prove immune to even great economic shocks. However, I am even seeing some nice Vacheron and Audemars e...
One wonders what will happen . . .
. . . when the demand for American currency drops concomitantly with the sagging price of crude oil. With all the speculation about the effect of plummeting oil futures on Russian and Iran, it's odd there isn't any regarding the currency oil happens to be...
Thanks Art...
The dollar is widely considered to be the "cleanest dirty shirt" in the FX market, and is also reflexively considered a "safe haven" by many. This, in spite of the fact that it has been, and continues to be badly debased. We are in the midst of an epic pe...
