Yes, some watches reached a certain Madness in terms of price and value.
And I suspect that some of them will suffer.
Now let's take some examples: Omega? CK 2915. Since Omegamania some ten years ago ( already! ) this ref has reached the sky. Some predicted that prices will fall, and they were / are wrong.
I remember very well when the Rolex Dayto Paul Newman reached the incredible price of 100 000 French Francs, so 15 000 Euros. I was totally shocked, now I laugh at myself when I think that I didn't want to go for it, because it didn't reflect what I though it should cost.
Not that simple, and I would be very prudent in saying that the market will fall.
Maybe the prices will stabilize a bit for many references.
Why, this is another question. Crisis, money, value of stock options, there are many reasons which drive people to invest in watches.
Now, I silghtly disagree with youwhen you say that value is very important or a Collector.
Ok, the Dayto PN is an excellent counter example of my answer, since I didn't go for it because I always thought it was overpriced, even 15 years ago ( LOL against my myself ).
No, the only thing which counts for me is the love I feel for a Watch. I love it, I make the effort. I don't love it, I pass. I will never think about investing money on a Watch I am not crazy about.
Luckily I am more and more crazy about watches which are Under the radar. Some Lemania, for example, or Tissot, or... Many other watches and brands.
Which offer much more than watches from the modern production, for much less.
One last point: I absolutely agree with you on the fact that watches from the current production are way too expensive...
Best, Tony.
Nicolas