One of the immediate thoughts that it spurred was that the very thing that a lot of collectors -- including myself -- are doing may be getting us into more trouble.
I refer to the "flight to quality," in which we sell a number of modestly priced and mid-priced pieces (earlier this year, I sold a bunch, at prices ranging from $4k to $40k) in order to buy a smaller number of "better" pieces. I'm suddenly feeling a draft -- although I am trying to focus on pieces that I believe have extremely high quality and a dose of what for a better term I have been calling "authenticity," buying pre-owned watches from other collectors (generally once the watches have been in the market long enough that something of a price equilibrium has been achieved, usually well below original retail), and concentrating my purchases of new watches via a small number of ADs who are offering significant courtesies on pricing.
The exception is on a few new watches from independents, whose prices have gotten nutty lately ($85k for a three hand watch?) but whose costs are also bizzare. I know the cost structure of one independent (not that one...) pretty well, and understand that with the cost of developing one's own movement, making watches in very small volumes per item at low total production numbers per year, fighting rapacious and slow suppliers, and allowing substantial margins for the retail trade, there frankly ain't much left even at todays high asking prices.
I'll continue to follow this thread and if time permits try to contribute more, but at the moment I need to leave for my flight to Geneva .
All the best to you, Steve!
Best,
Gary G