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Yes indeed; some subtleties
Steve, thank you for the excellent post. The watch industry today reminds me a bit of the portable tape players of the '70s and '80s. There were many versions of the Walkman, but they were all, well, tape players. A similar analogy is that the industry is a bit like the computer industry was before Steve Jobs came along and conquered it with elegance and simplicity. I suspect the answer is somewhat more subtle than that, but I can't help that the industry is largely still selling the same dream of heritage and craftsmanship that got it out of the rut in the early '80s. There is nothing wrong with the latter, it's just that things haven't moved on very much. An experienced veteran in the industry once commented to me that there has been no major complication created in the last century; it's all been thought through years ago. Perhaps an exaggeration in specifics, but perhaps true in the aggregate.
The price creep does not surprise me. The world's growth of rich people in the last 20 years has been dramatically higher than the number of minute-repeaters made by Patek Philippe in the same period. The high-end quality of the industry has simply reacted to pricing incentives allowed by such a group and has migrated from the well-off working class to the highly paid and entrepreneurial class. Of course many copy-cats have followed this success and the larger hordes of successful individuals has followed by buying them. In the physical sciences this is called an unstable equilibrium; an industry in danger.
The industry is, as you point out, ripe for disruption. This could easily come from smart start-ups doing very surprising (but of course obvious in retrospect!) approaches to the business. It would be great if it included new types of movements but I suspect it will be new ways of conducting business and removing the mystery from the traditional manufacture methods. It may also put the buyer more in control of their timepiece.
But I write too long; apologies I did not have the time to make this shorter! Thanks again for the thought provoking.
An Industry in Danger
First a quick update. For those who don't know, I left MB&F in December to pursue opportunities outside of the watch industry. As such, I am just a regular Purist once again. My opinion clearly is not representative of any brand, and in fact I can definit...
Interesting Post, Steve. A few other thoughts
First one correction. 10 years ago a Patek perpetual chrono did not cost $35K. List price was about double that--$70K (I am assuming you are talking about the 3970, which was the model then in existence). I share your worry about prices however. I am seei...
There's no question there are great products right now
You know that I love watches and will continue to. But the industry is doing their best to kill the goose laying the golden eggs. Customers are leaving and not coming back. You know a lot of collectors - don't you already see the burnout? I certainly do.
Jeff
I feel that Steve was talking about something more personal than Omega movements... Omega came to mind, too, for me, when Steve mentioned 9K. But as good of quality as the Omega may be... it is a soulless watch in my opinion, utterly. Sorry! But I feel th...
Quod demonstrandum erit ...l
" ...Look at Omega's new chronograph movement: free sprung balance, co-axial escapement, silicium hairspring, column wheel control, vertical clutch, co-axial minute and hour counters and date indication." Beyond doubt,all - or most of this - is new. But i...
I agree with you
and I am trying my best to focus on other fields of activities. It is quite insane that i.e. Patek's 5140P is costing the average two years net salary of an academically educated Finn. And still Finland is among the richest countries in the world. When th...
Thank you Steve
This quote describes much more than the watch industry. "95% of the artists are untalented dilettantes who in most cases don’t even understand what art is and that it is their job to make it. " Your candor is really appreciated, it makes someone lik...
Where art is in watches
Hi Steve, I can't say I disagree with what you wrote, even if I agree largely with what Jeff wrote (if Mr Kingston allows me to call him Jeff). Yes prices are getting insane (even if those prices pay my trip to Geneva monday, I realize that). I'm an educa...
Very interesting post SteveH
And I have been thinking the same thing. Pricing is out of control, 99% of the products are awful and there is a massive bubble, which will take a decade or two to recover from when it bursts. That's why I buy very selectively only what I truly love so if...
Not calling for death of...
Not calling for death of retail, just a rethinking of the approach! Some do a great job, many do not, all could benefit from some structural changes sent from my phone
...and another bubble lurking after the first one...
Hi Steve, Nice post. I gave up following new watches a few years back as the prices went up in proportion to the square of the increase in their diameters, and am more than happy in the relatively sane world of clocks. I suspect there's a second bubble wa...
58 years later and on my wrist
Was cleaning a drawer at my mother's home, found a 1950's Le Coultre Futurematic that was probably in a drawer for 20 years. Brought to my local watchmaker. He smiled from ear to ear. Few hundred dollars later, fully lubed and tuned, while lacking 50 year...
i think the general concensus s that prices are too high, and may not be sustainable
but the quality of watches are in general better then a decade ago...perhaps the fun is to separate the chaff from grain. to me, my greatest peeve is those brands like Linde Werdelin who use generic movements warehoused on so so case, and selling at INFLA...
Where is the debauchery when you want one?
There I was....bored to tears at home and you had DE-BAUCH-ERY? Yah Boo Hiss! I'm only a phone call away........ MTF
Can we plan one for the end of Feb party?
Themed as horological debauchery!! Best, Horo
Definitely true Steve
I agree with your thoughts on the pricing trend of most brands. In fact, brands that are part of the bigger groups are probably the ones "guilty" of upping the pricing. Since when does a 3 handed ETA movement watch goes for $4k list? But I guess the brand...
That will be such a
good fit don't you reckon. A chewy HM3, a H-Wing HM4, A couple of LM1s or whatever moniker they go by on each side of Princess Lea's head... An R2HM2 and a CPHM1... and all with a nice star wars fantasy story as a selling angle.
Your post seems to be a good sign of this site´s independence, Horo ...
as your "peeve" - LW - used to advertise on this page for quite a while ! Kind regards, anaesdoc
And all to the credit of people like TM and MTF etc...
None of the senior people here have ever instructed me or others, as far as I know, to do otherwise. Cheers, Horo
Great post Steve and an appreciated viewpoint from an "insider"
Thanks so much for your insight. I agree with every one of your points. I often wonder who's buying all these new watches from all these new and established watchmakers and it seems that anyone with graphic skills can CGI a watch, test the market, then se...
Yes indeed; some subtleties
Steve, thank you for the excellent post. The watch industry today reminds me a bit of the portable tape players of the '70s and '80s. There were many versions of the Walkman, but they were all, well, tape players. A similar analogy is that the industry is...
Thanks for sharing your thoughts
Steve, Some thoughts in response to your post... Regarding prices, yes they have gone crazy. It has been accelerated by devaluing currency and market demand. To quote Warren Buffett: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."...
Thanks for all the great comments
I enjoyed reading through them. It seems many of the points hit home for many people. Perhaps I should have titled point 2, point 1a. I am not calling for the death of retail. It is great to have great dealers. However, if we agree that Watches in general...
A very provocative post!
One of the immediate thoughts that it spurred was that the very thing that a lot of collectors -- including myself -- are doing may be getting us into more trouble. I refer to the "flight to quality," in which we sell a number of modestly priced and mid-p...
Very interesting read, Steve.
Thanks for your perspective. State of the industry aside, tell me, do you still LOVE watches themselves as passionately as you did before becoming an industry professional? Cheers, Daos
I have more appreciation for...
I have more appreciation for some and less for some. Overall I am slightly less interested now but that has nothing to do with in or out - I love the learning aspect about a new hobby and feel a bit out of that phase with this one. sent from my phone
Certainly understandable.
I look forward to your next phase in hobbies, and hope you'll share your experiences with us! Daos
"most of this stuff is shit"
whilke I am sure we read different meanings in to this, just on the surface level of this statement to watches, I must say I generally agree.
'Soul' is what separates 'art' from 'entertainment'...
and here is where the watch industry is in great danger to get their knickers in a twist. In the former days horological production was constrained by material and skill but also by the pride of the craftsmen and -women. You could to that, but you don't b...
I agree 100% and ...
Magnus, A large portion of the current lack of soul is a simple consequence of the lack of watch education of the newcomers (or new money). If you look on the advertising material of the past, they had, give or take, an educational content. They used to e...
I wonder
The prices do seem more inflated as I have walked through ADs over the years. At the same time, I have spent less time in ADs over the years because most of the watches do seem so similar with one brand or product line blending into another. However, I ag...
thank you
Steve, Thanks for your thoughtful post. I agree w/ much of your commentary around the price increases that seem to outpace reason... but not demand. Short-sightedness by an industry that has reset it sights on 'new markets'. And an explosion of brands and...
"Felt" consent
Dear Steve, I am no expert in the watch business nor in watch making, just a dedicated amateur attracted by these lovely little wrist marvels. I do not possess high-end watches like some of the folks around here, just plain, simple timepieces. So I cannot...
Fantastic reading.
I'm IN the watch industry, for five years now, and I have to agree with many of your comments and words. This post gives me wings (even more) to go ahead with a new project I have had in mind for a very long time, thanks. Best. Vte
Same feeling with you
i was very surprised at the price when i was new to watches. what made me more surprised than the retail price was the rate of inflation and the period of inflation. some of my favourite brands (im not sure about all other brands) has been raising the pri...
My thoughts on price
i was very surprised at the price when i was new to watches. what made me more surprised than the retail price was the rate of inflation and the period of inflation. some of my favourite brands (im not sure about all other brands) has been raising the pri...
